Interesting post. I believe we're never going to see a mass exodus. Why? The cost of leaving, for most, is to high. You lose your "friends" and for many your family.
what I do see though, especially amongst the 25 and younger crowd, is they aren't becoming as mentally invested in the religion as previous generations. Sure, they still pioneer, help with construction projects, and many still reach out to become servants or elders. Ask them anything related to doctrine? 607bc what? Jesus isn't my mediator? What's a mediator? They aren't invested in the doctrine anymore. They don't follow the rules as strictly as older ones did. Yeah they'll follow some rules, but if rules inconvenience them, well then not so much.